PTA Will Usher In A Rebound Rally

At the end of the two quarter, the new PX installations in South Korea, Japan and India, the breakup of the PTA industry alliance, the rise in the US dollar index, the continuous decline in crude oil prices and the continuous decline in the price of crude oil continued to weaken. The price of the TA1505 contract continued to be low and the TA1505 contract was at a low level of 4480 yuan / ton, a new low since 2009. It is only one step away from the historical minimum price of 4250 yuan / ton in November 08.

Looking back at the price trend of PTA in 2014, one obvious feature is that the trend of rise and fall is particularly consistent.

Looking at China in 2015

Xu Yucai, commentator of the economic information network, thinks such a feature will continue.

The overall forecast for 2015 is to suppress first and then raise. After the PTA price falls, it is expected to restore with the rebound of crude oil prices.

PTA is a petrochemical intermediate product, and the fluctuation of crude oil price will have a direct impact on all petroleum chemicals.

Looking back in 2014, international oil prices were high and low.

In June 2014, international oil prices hit the highest point in the year. New York's oil price reached $107.26 per barrel, and Brent's oil price reached $115.06 a barrel.

Since July, crude oil prices have fallen sharply, demand has declined, and the US dollar has continued to strengthen. More importantly, the impact of shale oil revolution has become increasingly prominent. The global crude oil supply structure is facing adjustment. OPEC has insisted on not reducing production in the battle of crude oil share, which has become a serious factor to drag down market confidence.

Of course, there is also a lack of market speculation that the political background of the big oil game is on the issue of crude oil.

By the end of December 31, 2014, oil prices in New York dropped to $53.27 a barrel, down 49.7% from the year's high, and Brent's oil price dropped to $57.33 a barrel, down 50.2% from the year's high point, both of which were cut short.

Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia are the three largest oil producers in the world, and the total oil production in three countries accounts for about 36.82% of the world's crude oil production.

The market behaviors and expectations of the three giants have an important impact on international oil prices.

Previously, the market expected international oil prices to fall below 70 U.S. dollars / barrel, which will cause OPEC and shale oil production in the United States, but neither OPEC nor American shale oil has seen signs of large-scale production cuts.

OPEC supply accounts for about 40% of global output. The organization produced 30 million 560 thousand barrels of crude oil in November, exceeding the common goal of the organization for sixth consecutive months.

In addition, judging by recent statements by Saudi and Russian heavyweights, Saudi Arabia and Russia will not take the initiative to cut production even if they keep their own market share even though oil prices are dropping sharply.

According to the latest figures released by the Russian Ministry of energy, Russia's oil production reached 10 million 580 thousand barrels per day in 2014, an increase of 0.7% over the same period last year, the highest level after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In addition, Russia's crude oil exports to China reached a record 22 million 600 thousand barrels (452000 barrels / day) this year.

Data released by EIA showed that US crude oil daily output rose to 9 million 140 thousand barrels as of December 12th, the highest level since 1983.

Commentator of China Textile Economic Information Network

crude oil

When did it stop falling into 2015?

A key factor in investment analysis.

According to the available information, from the cost point of view, the profit and loss balance of land and shallow oil exploitation is about $60 per barrel. If the profit of 10% plus the international oil price is above 70 dollars per barrel, the enterprise can survive normally.

The cost of shale oil in the United States is relatively large, with an average cost of $40-80 per barrel.

In terms of the cost of deep water oil exploitation, the cost of 77% is about $44-60 a barrel.

In a comprehensive assessment, about 85% of the crude oil

It's under 75 dollars a barrel.

Therefore, from a cost perspective, most oil producing countries can not cover the cost completely when the crude oil price falls below 60 US dollars / barrel.

Even shale oil in the United States is not immune.

In mid December, only 4 of the 18 shale oil producing areas in the United States could barely make any losses, and low oil prices had slowed investment in shale oil development in the United States.

IEA (International Energy Agency) predicts that shale oil investment next year will be reduced by 10% due to low oil prices.

In addition, from the comparison of the oil prices required by the oil producing countries in 2015, the majority of oil producing countries will be unable to bear the price of oil for a long time below 60 US dollars / barrel.

In the beginning of 2015, after the US crude oil fell below 50 US dollars / barrel, although the obvious signs of stop were not yet seen, the fluctuation of crude oil prices increased within a day, showing a trend of wide concussion.

And data show that US fund managers hold a net majority of crude oil holdings to a new high in the past two months, and the corresponding empty positions will reach their lowest level in 8 months.

In addition, the US crude oil and Brent crude oil are now the structure of the rising water in the far months. This shows that after a short sharp fall, the current oil price gap has begun to increase, waiting for a new direction.

Commentator of China Textile Economic Information Network

Finally, from the analysis of the imbalance between supply and demand in the current round of falling oil prices, although the global economic slowdown has led to a decline in oil demand growth, the decline in demand growth is not severe from data.

The oil consumption in the United States is relatively stable; the oil consumption in Europe is relatively weak due to the economic weakness; for China, the economic slowdown and the growth rate of oil consumption are decreasing, but from the absolute consumption level of oil consumption, it is still increasing year by year (in 2014, China's crude oil imports amounted to 3.1 billion tons, an increase of 9.5%, of which the import volume in December was 30 million 370 thousand tons, although it was lower than the previous media forecast of over 31 million tons, but the data still set a record, exceeding the highest value of 28 million 150 thousand tons in January 2014, reaching a new high in 2005 January.

The contradiction between supply and demand can be explained at the beginning of the decline in crude oil prices, but when crude oil prices fell to a relative low level of $40-50, crude oil prices could not be explained simply by supply and demand.

We see the low point of the crude oil to see the US oil 40 US dollars / barrel, the cloth oil 45 US dollars / barrel, at present we can only wait patiently, the market may need more time to change the space, waiting for the market mentality to recover gradually in the shock and repeated, waiting for low oil prices to trigger a reduction in production to repair the excessive price decline.