The "Heat Wave" In The PTA Market Is One After Another.

Last year, the PTA industry chain came from "

"The big game in the beginning of the 2015, the beginning of the new year of 2015, the high holding of PTA futures again attracted the attention of the market.

After January 14th

The total position of all futures contracts reached the highest level of 1 million 791 thousand hands, a 66% increase from 1 million 78 thousand at the end of last year.

14, the PTA main contract 1505 price hit 4480 yuan / ton, a record low, post office positions reached a 1 million 495 thousand hand high, equivalent to 3 million 740 thousand tons spot, which is about 1.5 months of production of all domestic PTA enterprises, for all of the country.

It will operate for more than 1 months at a rate of 80%.

The sharp increase in PTA futures positions began at the first trading day after the new year's Day holiday. On the same day, PTA futures increased more than 8 hands, and the two trading day increased 143 thousand and 243 thousand respectively.

Such a huge position and a single day increase in volume, immediately attracted the attention of many market investors.

Looking back at the historical trend of PTA futures, futures Daily reporters found that the phenomenon of short term large increase in warehouse position was not the first time, and it happened two times in 2014.

The first time since January 29th of that year, the total position of PTA futures has increased from 509 thousand to 1 million 38 thousand in February 27th.

The second time was from September 30th of that year, and the total position increased from 673 thousand to 1 million 113 thousand in October 14th.

The common point of PTA futures's large increase in positions is that the futures prices have fallen sharply during the period of the increase.

Yesterday, (26) after the opening, PTA futures position is still at the height of nearly 1 million 600 thousand hands lingering.

The top 5 seats in the top two seats accounted for 47.4% of the top 20, with a high degree of concentration. The top 5 seats in the empty main seat accounted for 41.9% of the top 20 seats, which was slightly more dispersed compared with the bulls.

At present, the two sides are locked in a stalemate.

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The Spring Festival is coming. Many market players have gone back to China for the new year.

These days, the flavor of Cangzhou is getting stronger and stronger.

As a cotton trader, we are still concerned about the market changes after the Spring Festival.

Many people asked me, "what do you think of the market after the Spring Festival? How can we handle the operation?"

Why? In the first year of the cotton subsidy policy, the policy has not yet been thoroughly understood, and the "arrears" of the three years' collection and storage have not been thoroughly studied.

But I can't help asking questions from my peers. Seeing the end of the year, I'm risking the risk of being shot.

Personal understanding of the current cotton price has gone to the end.

There are three reasons why:

First, Zheng cotton futures basically stabilized at 13000 yuan / ton line.

Yesterday (2), Zheng cotton main 1505 contract closed 13085 yuan / ton, down 65 yuan / ton.

Far month 1509 closed 13490 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton.

These days, Zheng cotton fluctuates around the range of 13000 yuan / ton, indicating that the bottom line of the industry is becoming more and more consistent.

Second, as of 2, Xinjiang cotton platform delivery price 3128 level in 13500-13600 yuan / ton line, the mainland warehouse delivery price of 14200-14300 yuan / ton, has been stabilized.

According to the Xinjiang ginning factory, the 3128 level cost is 14000 yuan / ton, that is to say, the current selling price is inverted 400-500 yuan / ton with the cost.

It is said that the factory price of 3128 cotton picking hand picked by some Xinjiang Corps is still set at 14400-14500 yuan / ton, which is 1000 yuan / ton higher than the market price, and has formed a strong support for the market.

Third, from the perspective of the operation of the mainland textile enterprises, most of the spinning profits have been negative since 2014 November.

The profits of some enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu are over 1000 yuan / ton, and some of them are over 2000 yuan / ton.

Pressure to lower the cost of raw materials to reduce costs has been weakened.

So I think, from the current situation, there is no possibility of a big drop in cotton after the Spring Festival.

Then, will it go up? My view is that it is also difficult to "go to the sky".

The main factors are profits and profits, which are evenly matched.