Trading Volume Of Beijing'S Property Market Hit A New High After "317 New Deal"

A survey on the market of the first tier property market at the end of 2020

By the end of 2020, the property and local markets of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the "two giants" in the bay area, have all come out of a tight market. Beijing's trading volume has begun to pick up, while Shanghai is experiencing a great recovery of second-hand housing The first-line property market in 2021, smell the smell of local price rise.

After a wave of year-end "tail" market, the Beijing property market in 2020 finally ushered in a rare "bumper harvest" in recent years. Data from Zhongyuan Real estate show that in 2020, 49000 new housing units and 169 000 second-hand houses in Beijing will be signed online, which will be the highest in the last five years and four years respectively.

This achievement was achieved while prices remained stable. Shell Research Institute pointed out that in 2020, the average transaction price of new houses in Beijing was 48147 yuan / m2, up 3% year-on-year; the average transaction price of second-hand houses was 60485 yuan / m2, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year.

Price stability and volume rise are considered to be the expected effect of Beijing property market regulation.

The industry usually regards the "317 New Deal" in 2017 as the starting point of a new round of Beijing property market regulation. Since the "317 New Deal" was introduced, Beijing's property market regulation has been increased at all levels, and has been "checking and filling up". The market has experienced a horizontal period of more than three years and continues to stabilize.

Taking the "317 New Deal" as the boundary, the transaction volume of Beijing property market in 2020 has reached a new high since this round of regulation. Among them, in the "tail up" December, the monthly trading volume has returned to the level before regulation.

As far as the whole country is concerned, Beijing property market has always been a "wind vane". Strict regulation and control policies, as well as the improvement of supply relations, are considered to be the main reasons for market stabilization.

Taking the "317 New Deal" as the boundary, the transaction volume of Beijing property market in 2020 has reached a new high since this round of regulation. Visual China

"Domino effect" of restricted competitive housing

Due to the impact on performance and other reasons, the real estate market transaction volume tends to increase significantly at the end of the year, which is known as the "tail market". In 2020, Beijing's property market has shown an obvious warming trend from the second half of the year, and the end of the year "tail up" is on schedule.

Statistics of Zhongyuan Real estate show that in December 2020, 6681 new and 20944 second-hand houses were sold in Beijing, both of which reached a monthly high since the "317 New Deal".

For the high trading volume, the industry generally believes that this is the result of many factors, such as demand recovery after long-term horizontal trading, demand release after the epidemic situation, and loose credit policy.

According to the statistics of Shell Research Institute, by December 2020, the interest rates of the first and second sets of mainstream housing loans in Beijing will both drop by 15 basis points on a year-on-year basis, which also promotes the release of a large number of rigid demand.

In fact, in the first half of last year, the market liquidity was very abundant. Even if the monetary policy changed to neutral in the year, the enthusiasm of capital and property market was still relatively high. In this case, the third and fourth tier cities after the dividend period of shed reform in previous years, the market rebound power has been insufficient. Therefore, the real estate in the core first and second tier cities is sought after.

Beijing's real estate market is heating up in this context. However, different from Guangzhou and other cities, the housing prices in Beijing have remained stable in the past three years without any big ups and downs. Among them, the price of second-hand housing in some regions also fell.

A person in charge of a large-scale real estate enterprise in Beijing told the reporter of the 21st century economic report that there are two main reasons for the stability of Beijing's house prices. First, the price limit policy is strict. In order to control housing prices, Beijing once suspended the approval of new houses with a unit price of more than 100000 yuan. Although the price limit policy has been relaxed in recent two years, the number of high-priced projects is still on the low side. Secondly, the large number of restricted competitive housing projects has increased the supply, and at the same time, it has stabilized the average market price to a certain extent.

Limited competitive house refers to the house built by auction land in the way of "limiting house price and competing land price". From the end of 2017, Beijing began to sell lots of non competitive housing on a large scale, and the limited competitive housing projects began to enter the market from the middle of 2018. Shell Research Institute pointed out that in recent years, competition for housing accounted for more than 60% of Beijing's new housing supply, and Daxing, Fengtai, Fangshan and Changping districts were the key areas of supply. By 2020, the proportion of auction limited housing transactions will be close to 50%, which will greatly change the supply structure of Beijing's new housing market.

The impact of limited competitive housing brings a series of "domino effect". Among them, it has the most significant effect on price. As the price is obviously lower than the market level, a limited competitive housing project will often affect the pricing of four to five commercial housing projects in the surrounding area, and affect the quotation of second-hand housing in the same region.

He said that due to the excessive supply, some limited competitive housing projects have fallen into unsalable condition, but some high-quality projects have become the mainstream of the market. In the "2020 Beijing residential sales ranking" of Zhongyuan Real estate statistics, the top 8 are all obtained by the restricted competitive housing projects. Among them, Vientiane Yuefu and Zhonghai Huanyu times have sold more than 2000 units, with sales of 9.69 billion yuan and 8.54 billion yuan respectively.

Price reduction as the main theme of second-hand housing transaction

In addition to the improvement of supply, the demand of Beijing property market has remained stable. Most respondents believe that under the most stringent regulation and control policy of the real estate market in China, the speculative demand in Beijing property market has disappeared, and the proportion of investment demand is very small. In addition to the influence of special factors, the market does not have the momentum of rapid warming up.

Most of these "special factors" come from outside the real estate sector. On April 30, 2020, Xicheng District, as the "education highland" of Beijing, issued new regulations on education reform, changing "single school division" to "multi school division". Xicheng District has also become the last one of the six districts in Beijing to implement "multi school division".

This policy aimed at promoting the equalization of basic education once made the price of second-hand housing in Xicheng District rise, but after the "window period" at the end of July 2020, the price of the region gradually returned to stability.

According to the shell Research Institute, the supply and demand structure of Beijing's property market is tending to balance after continuous regulation and control at both ends of supply and demand. Among them, the supply and sales ratio of Beijing's new housing market last year was 1.1:1. Various signs show that the transaction scale accounts for more than 70% of the second-hand housing sector, and the relationship between supply and demand has been greatly improved.

The aforementioned institutions pointed out that last year, the transaction cycle of Beijing's second-hand housing was 130 days, and the transaction cycle of customers was 99 days, which was 28 days and 14 days longer than that of the previous year, and the market transaction rhythm was still slow.

With the gradual transfer of the right of discourse to the buyer, the seller constantly gives up the insistence on the price. In 2020, the price adjustment of Beijing's second-hand house owners is still dominated by price reduction, accounting for 86% of the price adjustment, which is basically the same as that of last year.

According to the shell Research Institute, after the "317 New Deal", Beijing has experienced more than three years of horizontal price fluctuation. The purchasing power of young groups is relatively improved, and the opportunity to enter the market is advanced. In 2020, 16% of Beijing's second-hand housing buyers are under the age of 29, with a year-on-year increase of 3 percentage points.

It is worth noting that despite the rapid recovery of market transactions, there is still a gap between the Beijing property market and the market high before the regulation. Among them, the annual transaction scale of new houses has not yet exceeded 50000 units, which is far from the historical normal of 70000 to 80000 units (before 2014). The scale of second-hand housing transactions is less than 170000 units, while the annual sales before regulation and control are often more than 200000 sets.

However, people in the industry generally believe that with the normalization of property market regulation and the change of demand structure, it is difficult for the market to have a significant warming momentum, and the current transaction scale is expected to become the normal of Beijing property market in the next stage.

The price trend will also be stable. Shell Research Institute pointed out that under the background of monetary policy returning to normal gradually and real estate financial deleveraging gradually deepened, the average transaction price of second-hand housing in Beijing is expected to remain stable in 2021.

In terms of new houses, the transaction proportion of Beijing's unlimited land will increase from 48% in 2019 to 84% in 2020, which will play a supporting role in future house prices. However, as there are still plenty of non competitive houses waiting to enter the market, the price will not rise significantly.