Polyester Filament: The Rain Is Coming And The Wind Is Full.

Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the market of polyester filament is in a delicate state. The market is crowded with many short messages. However, the "air force" occupies a peak. It seems that there is a trend of rain coming.

The market of polyester filament in recent years is rather stiff. Before and after May 27th, the production and marketing of polyester filament Market concentrated erupted. On the one hand, there was a certain demand for replenishment on the one hand. On the other hand, the downstream believed that the time had already reached the bottom of the search, and the enthusiasm of enquiry increased, and the mindset of polyester filament enterprises changed well, and the production and marketing of the polyester filament industry became popular. The highest yield was up to 2000% in the day, and the average level was near 300%-500%. For 2-3 consecutive days, production and sales volume has been reduced, and pressure on enterprise inventory has eased.

Fig. 1 average daily production and sale rate of direct spun polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces

Source: lung Chung

Since then, the polyester filament market has been in the doldrums and has entered a downturn. As shown below, after hitting the peak, the average daily production and sales rate plummeted, and the average production and sales volume was near 4-5 per cent in recent years.

Fig. 2 Comparison of different types of direct spinning polyester filament

Source: lung Chung

According to long Zhong data statistics, this year's direct spinning polyester filament enterprise inventory peak appeared in the middle of 5 months. After a wave of preferential sales promotion, the inventory of enterprises has been alleviated to varying degrees. Taking POY as an example, the inventory level of enterprises in mid May is mostly in 16-19 days, and individual high-end in 28 days or so, nearly a month's level. But after the outbreak of production and marketing, the inventory of enterprises has dropped to 7-15 days, and the preferential treatment in Ningbo has been relatively large. Some enterprises' stock has dropped to a negative value, and it has been negative for 15-20 days. As mentioned above, production and sales are dropping rapidly, and enterprises are entering the storehouse stage again. Overall, the stock increase is not large, far less than the peak in May. Therefore, the market has a certain resilience. Some enterprises have adjusted slightly before the festival, and most enterprises have been waiting for the market.

For most polyester filament and related industries, the market is still pessimistic after the end of the Dragon Boat Festival.

Recent PTA equipment maintenance statistics

Unit: 10000 tons / year

Enterprise name	capacity	Device stopping time	Estimated restart time	Remarks
Jiangyin Han Bang	Two hundred and twenty	Two thousand and nineteen June 4th 2013	Overhaul for 2-3 days	Agitator failure
Jiaxing Petrochemical 1	One hundred and fifty	Two thousand and nineteen June 4th 2013	Overhaul for 3-5 days	Temporary Parking
Sichuan's ability to vote	One hundred	Two thousand and nineteen June 4th 2013	undetermined	Elimination of parking
Hua Bin petrochemical	One hundred and forty	Two thousand and nineteen June 5th 2013	Six 7 June	Parking inspection

Source: lung Chung

Cost end: PTA market also showed a downward trend before the holiday. Then PTA continuously exposed 4 device accidents and was forced to stop and repair. According to the usual practice, the device concentration is a good opportunity for the market to pull up. However, the market did not show any obvious reaction. On the same day, the PTA spot trading was flat. At present, big factories are very expensive, and they are reluctant to sell, which results in the tight circulation of PTA cash, supporting the market atmosphere, but the repair time is relatively short, and the spot closing is finally narrowed down. PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to be cautious and pessimistic.

Fig. 3 comprehensive trend of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms

Source: lung Chung

Demand side: As of Thursday, the overall loom rate of looms was 59.7% during the week, compared with last week's opening rate of 2.7%, of which the air jet loom integrated rate was 78%, which was 3% lower than last week's opening rate, and the average operating rate of water jet looms was 69.3%, which was 2% lower than that of last week's start-up rate, and the pressure bearing capacity of spinning enterprises was different. According to the survey results of the sample enterprises, most of the finished products of 100 ~300 looms were 45-60 days at the end of the day. This week, the overall starting rate of loom looms dropped to a low level near 32%, down 3 percentage points from last week. The industry's feedback on the demand for downstream garment enterprises has not shown signs of improvement in the short term. The sales promotion is not enough to achieve the expected inventory. Under the pressure of weaving enterprises, small businesses are forced to stop production or decline.

In conclusion, the demand for polyester filament will still shrink after the loom starts to store and downlink. With the increase of inventory pressure, the market will start a new round of sales promotion.

Figure 3 price prediction of mainstream polyester and polyester filament models in Jiangsu and Zhejiang

Source: lung Chung

At present, the upstream and downstream markets of polyester filament have no favorable support, and the polyester filament enterprises lack confidence in the market. At present, more than 75% of enterprises believe that there is a certain decline in the market of polyester filament yarn after the holiday. If there are no other major events, it is expected that the market will have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the early days after the holidays. Individual enterprises will take the lead in preferential shipping. Most enterprises will operate smoothly, depending on the quantity discount and the weak market operation. The center of gravity of the transaction will not fluctuate.