Song Qinghui'S Interpretation Of The Secondary Economy In The Market

Review of last week's market, A shares continued to shock, trading volume has shrunk slightly.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets recorded different levels of decline in the first two weeks of last week, holding 2900 points on Tuesday's close.

On Wednesday, the major indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities were all red, followed by two trading days, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were divided.

By the end of Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.01%.

Microscopically, in the short term, the basis of the A share market is not reliable, and the conditions for supporting the bull market are not yet available. In the two quarter, the market is still dominated by the shock pattern and is expected to gradually build a bottom.

However,

In the second quarter, the "convoy" launched by the major projects in the "13th Five-Year plan" will gradually play its role. Therefore, in the second quarter, the probability of China's overall economic operation is relatively large, and the whole economic base is expected to gradually "stabilize".

According to the statistical analysis of Qing Hui think tank, it is estimated that China's GDP will grow by 6.7% in the second quarter, and 6.8% in the first half of this year, and the target of 6.7% to 7% growth will be achieved throughout the year.

With the two quarter economic stabilization and policy effect gradually showing, and the acceleration of various capital market entry, the Shanghai composite index may have a further opportunity to rise after a period of concussion after 3000 points.

This week, from the perspective of investment strategy, I suggest

Do a good job of active defense, should not be too heavy positions, you can be good at "one mu three points field" repeatedly toss.

At the same time, we should pay close attention to the infrastructure and real estate sectors that are likely to get the policy stimulus. With the continuous decline of the market interest rate, underestimate the value, the blue chips with high dividends, and the pharmaceutical and biological sectors with strong profitability.

In addition, investors can still pay close attention to the "shell resource concept stocks" mentioned in my column last week, because it can be said to be the last feast of the A share market.

Why? Because with A shares

The pace of progress has slowed down, and the strategic emerging board has been temporarily shelved. Shell resources will undoubtedly maintain a relatively high scarcity. The shell related listed companies are expected to be closely watched by the market.

In the short term, shell resources may still create a myth of wealth, and the market will still have a passion for shell resources speculation.

With the gradual deepening of the reform of the publishing side and the strict implementation of the delisting system, the cost performance of shell resources will be lower and lower. Under normal circumstances, issuers will prefer direct queuing to listing instead of backdoor listing.

The standards of auditing are the same, but shell resources will bring more uncertainty to the backdoor party, such as the investigation of Eucalyptus, which may lead to the failure of backdoor.

*ST Bo Yuan being forced to withdraw from the market can be seen as the most direct embodiment of the regulatory system gradually improving the delisting system.

In the future, the problem of A shares may be normalized in the future, and the listed companies will gradually achieve a win win strategy under the rule of marketization.

When shell resources are sought, we should not forget that investment risks are increasing. If we insist on investment, we should try to find clean shell resources, such as liabilities and illegal activities in battalions.