Where Is The Breakthrough Path For The Game Of Polyester Industry?

< p > the world is < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank".

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< p > PX-PTA- polyester is no longer a vertical industrial chain. In the era of capital management, industrial capital and financial capital mingle and compete and cooperate in the invisible market.

Under the market structure where products are generally oversupplied, there is no longer a unilateral interest game between the upstream and downstream, and the fermentation of multi stakeholder conflicts makes business relationship more complicated.

To simplify and simplify, enterprises must first understand their roles.

Liu Dewei, chairman of Xiamen Xiang Lu chemical fiber Limited by Share Ltd, believes that after the entry of the real economy into the PTA futures market, the starting point of the enterprises is not to maximize profits, but to ensure the steady operation of the enterprises.

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At the same time, the profit pfer of PX-PTA- polyester is also complicated by human factors. P

To catch up with the situation slowly, the polyester at the end is passive.

In the first quarter, the PX industry was in a state of loss and increased. The PTA industry also expanded its deficit due to the pressure of production capacity. The polyester industry enjoyed a rare profit due to the sales pressure of raw material PTA.

At the beginning of May, PX manufacturers finally failed to bear losses and began to stop production and maintenance. Then the price of PX gradually rose.

The rise in PX prices has made PTA enterprises suffer more losses.

Hengli petrochemical, Xiang Lu petrochemical, Yanda Shanda, the three production capacity accounts for about 60% of the total domestic production capacity of PTA manufacturers began to turn off the car maintenance, the operating rate will be controlled below 70%, resulting in the PTA spot market is out of stock, some pet factories can not even buy goods.

The PTA giant raised the settlement price in May, and redefined the settlement price system, which made the settlement price directly bind to the PX price.

The PTA industry reaped profits and pferred losses to polyester manufacturers.

However, PX manufacturers did not reboot the early stage in large areas, and the profits pferred by PTA manufacturers were gradually swallowed up by PX raw materials.

At this point, the profits of the entire chemical fiber industry chain shifted from polyester manufacturers to PTA enterprises, then moved to PX manufacturers.

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< p > profit pfer is a multi-party game.

The overall situation faced by all parties needs to be observed from a more macro perspective, and the specific operational choices need to be carried out.

At the Eleventh China International polyester forum, many sides began to think about the problems in the PX-PTA- polyester industry chain from different angles. For a long time, the organizer of the market has shown professional standards in the past, and many topics such as the PTA futures on the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange have been heated by the guests.

This article selects several topics to discuss with you.

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< p > < strong > polyester industry has pressure < /strong > < /p >.

< p > < strong > Zhang Youding, deputy director of Sinopec's synthetic fiber department, < /strong > /p >

< p > market demand will enter a low growth period.

It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of polyester demand in China will further decline to 6% to 7% in 2015~2020 years.

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< p > internal reasons: first, China's economic development is undergoing pformation. GDP's continuous rapid development is not the pursuit of goals; the two is that China's per capita income will enter the ranks of moderately developed countries. The improvement of people's living standards will put forward higher quality demand. The contribution to a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > textile "/a" clothing consumption will be reduced; three, the contribution of population growth will decline, and China's population will still increase by 1% or about 10000000 every year, but our country is gradually entering the aging society, and the per capita consumption power of the elderly population will decline.

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< p > external factors one is the obvious changes in the international environment for promoting export growth. The world economy has entered the period of trying to adjust and pform from the rapid development period before the crisis, and the rise of international trade protectionism. Two, although the world population is over 7 billion, the population growth in developed countries is stagnant or declining. The new population is concentrated in the developing countries with high temperature in South Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa, and the demand pull effect is low. Three, the world textile will begin to show a new round of industrial pfer from Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia, and will gradually accelerate.

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< p > current polyester market is returning to cost.

PX polyester industry chain continues to lose money. PTA operation has been in a state of cash loss since last August, and most enterprises are unable to afford it. The PTA industry first proposed the mechanism of cost pricing, but the key lies in its operation.

Control load can achieve cost pricing, which is innovation for the development of industrial chain.

If done well, it is the industry's good fortune.

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The behavior of price adjustment < p > PTA has positive significance for the industry: first, it is conducive to the development of PTA industry; the two is the risk reduction caused by the fluctuation of industrial chain, and the complexity of the operation of fiber enterprises will also be reduced.

For the positive significance of the market: the impact of cost return to crude oil and futures speculation weakened.

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< p > vice general manager of Yangzhou Huitong Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. Jing Liaoning < /p >

< p > at present, domestic polyester production capacity has exceeded 41 million tons, accounting for about 48% of global capacity.

Polyester engineering projects in India account for more and more business in our business, and there are more enterprises in domestic polyester technology pformation.

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< p > polyester industry in China is affected by RMB appreciation, labor cost increase, crude oil price being at a high price for a long time, and high dependence on raw material import. At the same time, it faces vicious competition, over investment and environmental protection. Most enterprises are in a small profit or even a deficit for a long time. Most enterprises are faced with the risk of capital chain breakage.

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< p > most enterprises are faced with such a cruel market environment. Enterprises are actively trying to find the way: first, reduce production costs by reducing consumption, mining waste heat and recycling polyester; two, differential pformation; three, get involved in EG, PX and other industries, and develop to the industrial chain.

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< p > < strong > PTA futures are helpers? < /strong > /p >

< p > Xu Zhaoyang, vice president of Yuanda Products Group Co., Ltd. < /p >

< p > this year, the PTA industry starts far below the equilibrium state and is in the stage of de stocking.

And PTA enterprises raise prices, resulting in spot premium.

However, under the pressure of production capacity, industrial capital is under tremendous pressure.

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Under the pressure of production capacity, the factory can not control the spot price by adjusting the forward price, but can only control the inventory under the pressure of P PTA.

The practice of raising prices by PTA enterprises makes industrial capital antagonistic to financial capital not only to antagonistic financial capital, but also to place traders and downstream enterprises in the position of competitors.

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< p > under the pressure of production capacity, the polyester enterprises can not control the price in the game with the downstream, they can only control the inventory.

Next, PX will play a game with PTA enterprises by controlling inventory.

End of the unilateral game era, the interests of all parties will be carried out through a variety of channels.

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< p > Liu Dewei, chairman of Xiamen Xiang Lu chemical fiber Limited by Share Ltd, < /p >

< p > futures instruments have two sides.

First of all, be clear about your role: big fish or shrimp.

Enterprises should understand that the purpose of entering the futures market is not to maximize profits, but to ensure the steady operation of enterprises.

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< p > financial capital will play a role in boosting the risk pfer process, but it can not change the fundamentals.

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< p > futures will push the whole pricing mechanism of refining, aromatics, chemical fiber and textile industry towards internationalization.

Enterprises should learn to use futures as a tool.

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< p > < strong > new pattern of industrial chain < /strong > < /p >

< p > MF network analyst Zhao Cheng < /p >

< p > the new characteristics of polyester industry in 2014: productivity growth accelerated and output growth slowed down.

In the first half of this year, the output of polyester was 15 million 689 thousand tons, and its output increased by only 2.2%, while last year's output increased by 6.8%.

To a certain extent, this shows that enterprises are well versed in the principle of "cash is king", and use the adjustment of operating rate and keeping low inventory to lock profits.

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< p > 2014, PX-PTA-PET built a new balance system. From the original 80: 80: 80 operating rate, it will gradually evolve into a state of 80: 65: 80. If the dynamic balance of the basic plane is damaged, it will lead to profit distribution.

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< p > the improvement of profits is not only related to their own needs, but also the most direct factor is the integration of industries.

Last year, the polyester industrial yarn basically released no new capacity, but eliminated nearly 100 thousand tons of small capacity, and polyester bottle from 20 production enterprises to the current 10 production enterprises, in itself is a change in the weight of discourse.

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< p > nearly 5 years, < a href= "http:// here, the world's clothing and shoes and hat net Xiaobian introduces us to the polyester industry: the way to break through under the game.

"Polyester < /a > eliminated capacity has exceeded 3 million tons, and PTA and its upstream industries have expanded significantly. This year, the industry has also revealed the clue of industrial integration. The industry has begun to think more seriously about this problem.

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