At Present, China's Cotton Supply Is Fully Adequate, And The Cotton Price Will Continue To Oscillate In September.

< p > < strong > [fundamentals] < /strong > /p >
< p > 1, the cotton planting area in Dezhou city of Shandong province is 1 million 130 thousand mu, which is 200 thousand mu less than that of last year. In June, the local temperature was relatively high, relatively dry, and it entered the rainy season from mid July to August 13th. There was a lot of rain, and some parts of the plot accumulated water. In August 7th, there was thunderstorm and more than 7 gale, and cotton lodging was serious. This year's rainy season is 10-15 days ahead of the previous years. The individual peach at the bottom is darkening, which has an impact on < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > cotton yield < /a >, and the average yield of seed cotton is estimated at 430-450 Jin, which is 15% less than that of the whole year. < /p >
< p > 2, India rupee depreciation and rising demand in China boosted India cotton yarn exports. In July this year, the export volume of India's cotton yarn reached 139750 tons, an increase of 47.9% over the same period last year, the second highest historical value in the past 15 months. Data show that since May this year, the India rupee has fallen by 16% against the US dollar, mainly because foreign capital is being withdrawn from the India market, India's slow economic growth and its expanding fiscal deficit. In addition, the export of India's cotton yarn continues to rise through the expansion of China's "appetite". In the next few months, if India's cotton yarn exports continue to maintain strong growth momentum, the cotton consumption in India this year will be 3.3% higher than the forecast level of USDA506.2 million tons. < /p >
< p > 3, due to the monsoon season, the cotton farmers in Gujarat in India have had a good time. The cotton output in the 2013-14 year is expected to increase by 30%. In the cotton season from October 1st, cotton production in the state is estimated at about 11 million 500 thousand packs, 170 kilos per pack. However, the national cotton output will increase by less than 10%. Cotton planting areas across the country are expected to remain at 11 million 500 thousand hectares, of which 2 million 600 thousand hectares are in Gujarat. < /p >
< p > 4, spot information: China < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > cotton price index < /a > 328 level 19158 yuan / ton, down 4 yuan; 527 level newspaper 16850 yuan / ton, down 0 yuan / ton; 229 level newspaper 20000 yuan / ton, fell 4 yuan; 429 grade newspaper reported 429 yuan / ton, fell by yuan yuan / ton. < /p >
< p > < strong > market comment < /strong > < /p >
< p > 1, yesterday, Zheng cotton main contract 1401 shock dropped, opened at 19915 yuan / ton, the highest price of 19930 yuan / ton on that day, the lowest price 19840 yuan / ton, reported at 19855 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price fell 35 yuan / ton, turnover 19 thousand and 900 hands. < /p >
< p > 2, as of the end of July, China's commercial inventory was 1 million 680 thousand tons, an increase of 300 thousand tons from last month, enough for 8 and two months of cotton consumption in September. Among them, as of the end of July, the stock of cotton in textile enterprises was 1 million 37 thousand and 900 tons, and the disposable cotton stocks were 1 million 521 thousand and 900 tons. It can be seen that during the new and old cotton connection, China's cotton supply is quite adequate, that is to say, there is no shortage of cotton due to the slow growth of new cotton in the new year. It is estimated that September a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > cotton price < /a > will continue to oscillate. < /p >
< p > < strong > operation strategy < /strong > < /p >
< p > operation, the 1401 contract has recently maintained or maintained a small fluctuation market, and wait-and-see is the main one; the proposed 1405 contract is empty single holding, with a target of 18400 yuan / ton. < /p >