Cotton Prices Are Still Within The Price Range Of Policy Regulation.

< p > China's annual growth rate of GDP in the two quarter increased by 7.5%. Li Keqiang's economic bottom remarks stirred the market. The US economy recovered well. Uncle Lao's optimistic speech boosted QE's confidence, the economic environment was complex and changeable, and the overall atmosphere was warmer.

Zheng cotton contract 1301, 1305, 1305 prices all the way up to 21000 yuan / ton, 1401 contract and 1405 contract buying opportunity has arrived? < /p >

< p > < strong > 1. The macro environment is magnificent and the whole atmosphere is warm. < /strong > < /p >

< p > the number of non farm employment in the United States continued to rise and decrease, and real estate data and manufacturing data showed optimism. Bernanke's dove comments on QE boosted market confidence and the US economy recovered steadily. Although the European economy was in a slump, the French and EFSF ratings were downgraded, but the European situation was generally stable.

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< p > China's annual growth rate of GDP in the two quarter increased by 7.5%, which is in line with expectations and is still within the annual target.

Although the data of manufacturing, import and export data in the first half of the two quarter were sluggish, the domestic economy was generally stable.

Recently, Li Keqiang's speech on the lower limit of economic growth is driving the market volatility. The State Council's work plan for the second half of the year is about to come out, and the domestic policy level speculation is still the core.

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China's economic needs and leaders' speeches will be the core of the market. The US QE reduction and the legacy of European debt will also be hyped up from time to time, and the economic environment will fluctuate but remain stable throughout the P.

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< p > strong > two, cotton price is still within the price range of policy regulation < /strong > /p >

< p > < strong > 1. the purchase price is the decisive factor of cotton price < /strong > < /p >

The price of the national cotton purchase and storage in the < p > 2013/14 is still stable at 20400 yuan / ton, and the effect of purchasing and storing is weak at the present stage, but it is still the decisive factor of cotton price trend.

Therefore, the bottom price range of cotton 1401 contract price is relatively limited.

Market information said that in 2014 the government would adjust the cotton policy, from purchasing and storage to direct subsidy. Therefore, the 1405 contract during the storage and purchase period, though low in price, still has greater policy risks.

Even if the cotton policy remains unchanged, the amount of storage in 13/14 and the storage price in 2014/15 are still uncertain.

The existing policy does not see 1405 contracts more than expected, and it is advisable to choose 1401 contracts on the operation.

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< p > < strong > 2. dumping price is still the bottom of cotton price < /strong > < /p >.

Less than 18500 yuan per ton in September 2012, and 19000 yuan per ton in January 2013, the reserve price in the early stage of dumping and storage is even higher than that in the middle and long term, though the price of P is negative.

Therefore, the market will not fundamentally change the market in July.

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P > by the end of July 16th, the total amount of the total listing was 12137004.91 tons, with a total total volume of 2989331.453 tons, with a total turnover of 24.63%.

Among them, 641120.3206 tons of imported cotton were accumulated, and 529245.108 tons of imported cotton were imported in 2011 in May 6th.

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< p > the 19000 yuan / ton reserve price of the current price section basically determines the bottom price of the spot price, and the actual dumping price is maintained at around 19200-19300 yuan / ton.

In July 16th, the 328 cotton price index was 19263 yuan / ton, basically flat in the reserve price.

Considering the cotton delivery cost of 200-300 yuan / ton, the price of cotton is maintained at 19500-19700 of normal value range, but because a large number of high-quality cotton is included in the national treasury, the market circulation of cotton is reduced, throwing cotton reserves can not be delivered, cotton warehouse receipts are tight overall, and cotton keeps strong in recent months.

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< p > up to July 16th, there were 198 cotton warehouse receipts, 35 effective forecasts, and a total of about 1864 tons of warehouse receipts. The CF1309 contract of Zhengjiao exchange has 14758 positions. If all deliveries are equivalent to 36895 tons of cotton, there will still be a larger margin gap, and the 1309 contract price will rise to a high level of 21000 yuan / ton.

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< p > strong > three, will history repeat itself, and 1401 cotton price of contract goes up < /strong > /p >

< p > a simple review of cotton contracts 1301, 1305 and 1309 found that cotton prices basically rose before and after the delivery, and fluctuated greatly.

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< p > note: the price starts from the day of the sharp rise of the delivery month, the starting price is the lowest price of the day, the highest point is the uplink price point < /p >.

< p > according to the historical price trend of cotton contracts, under the current cotton policy unchanged, macro-economy, < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > textile < /a > industry demand and limited change of cotton prices, it is estimated that the target price of the 1401 contract will remain near 20800-21000 yuan / ton (storage price + related delivery cost), and the low price can only force cotton into the national reservoir.

The initial start-up time is estimated at 8-9 months after the delivery of the 1309 cotton contract, the latest starting time in December 2013.

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< p > strong > four, the macro environment is colorful, and cotton price is still independent. < /strong > < /p >

< p > although the macro hot spots and risk events are concentrated, cotton prices are still independent and go out of their own style under the constraints of policies.

Cotton 1401 contract price current price in 19800 yuan / ton nearby, is in 19700-20200 overestimated value range, the operation space is not big.

In the late stage, the impact of selling and pressing, such as macro profit and falling cotton, are likely to make Zheng cotton fall again below the value range of 19700.

Considering the relevant delivery cost and reserve reserve price, it is suggested that zhengmian more than 1401 can only add a small amount of 19500-19700 to the warehouse. If it falls below 19500, it is proposed to increase its position. Under the existing policy, cotton prices will be limited in the medium and long term.

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