Import Policy To Adjust Cotton Prices Or To Advance Ahead And Suppress

At the end of the year, the Ministry of Finance adjusted the import tariff rate of cotton and the import price was 100 cents above.

This year's global high-yield situation coupled with the impact of macroeconomic factors, ICE disk decline is greater than the domestic market.

The amount of import quotas is unknown, and the external market is warming up.

For the trend of next year's market, the main concern is the time point after the Spring Festival, the end of the purchase and storage and the new cotton planting period.

After the Spring Festival, there will be a hype in the textile industry. If there is a large number of state purchase and storage this year, there may be some reluctance to sell when the market starts next year.

At the same time, due to the arrival of US cotton at the end of the year, as well as the larger price difference between inside and outside, the increase of cotton may be larger than that in China, and the price difference between ICE disk and internal disk may be narrowed.

Another point to note is the issue of import quotas. Until the end of the year, there is no news of the quota issuance next year, and the import volume in November this year will be equal to the quotas issued this year. Therefore, the price of import quotas may increase substantially at the beginning of next year.

The pformation of global pattern and the limited area speculation

By the end of March, the purchase and storage ended in April.

First of all, there must be a large accumulation of four grade cotton in the mainland. At the same time, the three or four grade cotton price difference of the spot market is much higher than that of the three or four grade cotton market in the futures market. Therefore, the amount of the four grade cotton participation in the delivery will increase significantly, so that the price will be dragged down. At the same time, the reserve price will disappear. Once the textile enterprises enter the off-season, the price will lose support.

Next May is the planting period of cotton in the northern hemisphere, and next year's planting area will become the focus of market attention.

Looking back on the past, about 20000 of the price excluding last year's sharp rise and fall has been regarded as a high price in history. Due to the lack of intensive agriculture in China, the influence of cotton in the mainland has been getting smaller and smaller in recent years. The adoption of large area planting in Xinjiang cotton has an advantage in cost control, so there will be no big change in the price of such a planting area.

From abroad, the cotton yield of Brazil cotton in the southern hemisphere has obvious advantages, and the cost is lower than that of the US cotton. Due to the abundant rainfall and good quality in the past two years, Australia cotton is becoming more and more popular. Therefore, the planting and production of these two countries should be in a steady improvement stage.

On the whole, speculation in planting area will not be particularly obvious next year, but weather factors will remain critical during the growth period.

In summary, because there is a big price difference between inside and outside market, the cotton price will gradually return, and the domestic price should still be above 20000 before closing.

After the purchase and storage is finished, the spot pressure will surfaced, and both inside and outside the market will face greater pressure.

The trend of the second half of 2012 is determined by many factors, such as weather.

After May next year, the price center should be below 20000, and the external market is still heavy. Unless there is a very bad weather, it will give hype space (similar to the domestic weather in 2010).