Next Year, The Macro Policy Or The Word "&Nbsp" Will Be In Place.

The annual central economic work conference will be held soon.

According to convention, the conference will sum up the achievements of economic work in the past year, cope with the changes in the current international and domestic economic situation, formulate plans for macroeconomic development, and deploy next year's economic work.

The central economic work conference, which closed last December 12th, set the main tone for the implementation of active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy this year.

Looking ahead next year, inflationary pressures have slowed down and economic growth is facing difficulties. These factors will have a major impact on the formulation of monetary policy next year.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, predicts that the annual central economic work conference held in the first half of December will set the tone for the policy keynote in 2012 as "prudent monetary policy" and "positive fiscal policy".

Specifically, the 12 increase in the deposit rate since last year has been expected in 2012.

Some economists even think that the time window for deposit rate reduction is in December.

As for the adjustment of benchmark interest rate, there is a certain uncertainty. The level of negative interest rate may continue for quite a long time.

Monetary policy has no tight basis.

The implementation of the tight control policy for more than half a year showed signs of partial relaxation in the fourth quarter.

In late October, Wen Jiabao, premier of the State Council, said in his research in Tianjin that the macro policy would be "timely and appropriately adjusted to fine tune".

Subsequently, the central bank announced in its "third quarter 2011 monetary policy implementation report" that the central bank's monetary policy will be adjusted according to the changes in the economic situation in a timely and appropriate manner.

In fact, the fourth quarter monetary policy put forward "pre fine-tuning" also has a certain background.

"Since January 2010, the central bank has raised the reserve requirement ratio of large financial institutions for 12 times in a row. The main purpose is to recover liquidity and deal with the rising pressure of inflation."

Fu Bingtao, a researcher at the strategic planning department of the Agricultural Bank of China, said that the current downward trend of inflation and the economic base of monetary policy continued to shrink.

CPI began to decline after reaching a peak of 6.5% in July, and CPI will decline to about 4.3% in November.

It is worth noting that the signs of slower growth in the real economy are starting to grow.

In October, the industrial added value increased by 13.2% over the same period last year, down 1.9 percentage points from the highest 15.1% in the year.

In November, data on HSBC PMI and apparent consumption of crude steel indicate that industrial growth will fall further.

Therefore, the function of monetary policy to promote growth will become increasingly prominent, and the intensity of policy adjustment will increase.

Layout in 2012, many economists believe that this fine-tuning will be further strengthened.

In fact, the fine-tuning in November has yielded initial results: in November, RMB loans increased by 564 billion yuan, which was higher than expected at the beginning of the month.

"The policy will be further fine-tuning, and directional easing will be further strengthened."

Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JP Morgan China, said that the government's policy of directional easing is embodied in the adoption of positive financial and credit measures to ensure support for some industries, including providing tax incentives for the service industry, and providing credit support to SMEs and affordable housing.

But at the same time, Zhu Haibin also stressed that the policy will not be fully relaxed, similar to the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus at the end of 2008 will not happen.

Fu Bingtao believes that, considering that the current real estate market regulation is at a critical stage and the potential impact factors of inflation have not yet been completely eliminated, monetary policy is still suitable for maintaining a stable tone next year. However, we should increase the intensity of pre regulation and further reflect the foresight, flexibility and pertinence of the policy.

The rate of interest rate will be lowered.

In Fu Bingtao's view, the healthy and stable operation of the economy needs reasonable and moderate liquidity support. One of the key points of monetary policy adjustment is to restore the M2 growth to a reasonable level as soon as possible.

Central bank data show that the M2 balance in October 2011 was 81 trillion and 680 billion yuan, up 12.9% from the same period last year, compared with 19.7% in December last year.

Looking back on this year's "prudent" monetary policy: the central bank has raised the deposit rate six times in a row.

The deposit rate of large commercial banks has reached a historical high of 21.5%.

"It is expected that a comprehensive statutory reserve requirement ratio will not come up until next year."

Lu commissar said that considering the end of the year will be about 1 trillion and 500 billion of the Financial deposits concentrated outflow, therefore, there is no need for a comprehensive reduction of the statutory reserve requirement rate.

Faced with liquidity constraints at a specific time point, the central bank can smooth through adjusting the dynamic differential reserve ratio parameters, reducing the open market withdrawal and reverse repurchase.

However, Fu Bingtao believes that the new foreign exchange will continue to decrease in the coming period, and that the amount of funds expended from December to February of next year will remain at a low level. Even if we consider the factors of financial deposit, it is still not enough to ease the tension of market liquidity.

Fu Bingtao said that the central bank's reduction of the deposit reserve ratio is undoubtedly a good choice to alleviate the pressure of market funds in the short term, and also meets the policy orientation of pre fine-tuning.

He also expects that the end of this year to next February will be an important time window for the reduction of deposit rate.

On the whole, many economists interviewed expect that the deposit rate will be lowered in the next few months. The difference is just the time window for downgrading.

There is a big uncertainty about whether the benchmark interest rate will be lowered next year.