The Renminbi Has Seen A Bearish &Nbsp; This Month It Has Been Derogated From 0.5%.

According to public data, as of November 25th, it was 6.3554 yuan on the day of 1 US dollars.

Now, the judgement of the prospect of RMB appreciation is different from before.

The Wall Street journal published the signature article entitled "RMB appreciation process or abrupt stop" in the prominent position in November 25th. Analysts said that China had only second net foreign exchange outflows in more than 10 years, which means that the day of RMB appreciation is coming to an end.

The article quotes Kowalczyk, an analyst at Oriental Financial Analyst, as saying that the value of the renminbi is vulnerable to the impact of international capital flows, and the pressure of appreciation has not been as great as before.

Kowalczyk said "second times"

According to a report released by Standard Chartered Bank, the rate of RMB appreciation in 2012 may be only 3.3%, lower than the expectation of 4.5% appreciation this year.

The behavior of market participants also reflects the expectation or change of RMB appreciation.

The statistics released by the State Administration of foreign exchange on November 25th showed that the surplus of foreign exchange sales on behalf of banks was only 3 billion 200 million US dollars in October this year, setting a new low since the month was released.

Specifically, the sale of foreign exchange sales in October was unchanged from that in August and September, but the number of foreign exchange settlement declined significantly. This has become the main reason for the low surplus of foreign exchange sales.

In fact, if RMB appreciation expectations are strong, enterprises and individuals will tend to

As the most important component of capital inflow, the import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs recently showed that the export growth rate continued to be depressed in October. The trade surplus of that month was 17 billion 33 million US dollars, far below market expectations.

In the downward trend of trade surplus, the pace of RMB appreciation is reasonable.

Xiang Songzuo, director and deputy director of the International Monetary Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said in micro-blog recently, "from the market sentiment, trade balance, international capital flows and other aspects, I think the RMB appreciation has basically ended, at least at the peak stage.

Judging from China's foreign trade situation next year, the outflow of funds caused by the European debt crisis, and the adjustment of domestic real estate prices leading to the general fall in asset prices, we should immediately stop unilateral appreciation.

Reuters quoted the latest report from Barclays Capital on 25 July. "The new RMB exchange rate regime" (including allowing for a wider range of two-way exchange rate fluctuations), increasing the use of the basket of currencies and allowing a larger fluctuation range of the spot exchange rate against the US dollar may soon take shape, which will pave the way for two-way currency fluctuations.

Reuters reported that with the narrowing of external earnings and slowing capital inflows, the renminbi was no longer undervalued.

Over the past two weeks, the spot market exchange rate has been traded to the weaker end of the trading range many times.

It is worth noting that although Barclays Capital expects an annual appreciation of RMB 5% to 10% on a trade weighted basis, it also indicates that under the new RMB exchange rate regime, adverse changes in the economic and financial situation may induce multiple devaluation of the currency.

However, in the view of Zhao Qingming, an expert on international finance, the renminbi will continue to appreciate.

First of all, the pattern of China's balance of payments surplus will continue. Secondly, the RMB is still undervalued and has a certain distance from the equilibrium exchange rate. Third, the current hot money is "quiet", which is conducive to the realization of a balanced exchange rate of RMB.