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The Key Supporting Position For July Contracts Is About &Nbsp; 142.00&Nbsp; Cents.

2011/5/30 14:04:00 37

Key To Contract

  


 

 


New York cotton leading month contract price trend is limited to the 160.00-150.00 cents interval.

On the other hand, the 11 year December contract rose because of the large volume of fund positions (selling 11 years in July / buying 11 years December), especially in Western Texas.


11 years July contract -11 December contract price upside down 13 cents / pound.

As more index funds begin to roll over long positions in the next few weeks, the price inversion may continue to shrink unless the textile mills buy prices for the 11 year July contract.

The latest cotton price report (May 20th) shows that the 11 year July contract will be priced at 19910 hands, which is only 1552 less than last week's report.


Not surprisingly, there is no immediate demand for delivery in textile mills, but there is no larger demand for forward / new cotton parts.

As long as the inventory process is not coming to an end, it will be difficult for the current situation to change in the foreseeable future.


Technology: in July, 11 years, the contract needed to break through 161 cents (maybe) to form some kind of sustainable energy.

The key resistance is 175 cents -180.00 cents, and the key support is about 142 cents.

The key resistance for December 11 contracts was 131.50 cents and 132 cents, but the position has not yet broken through the key resistance position.

If we break through the resistance level, the market should move closer to 137.00-140.00.

The short-term trend is positive and the key support is 123.50 cents.


  


 

 


The United States - at present, about the United States

market

Any report must focus on the worst drought in Texas's history.

The reality is beginning to show, and the days go by. There is no rain in the area, and crop fields are decreasing in 2011/12.

Not only in Western Dezhou, but in fact, the non irrigated farmland in the state is decreasing.

In the Rio Grande Valley and in the lower shores of the coast, insurance claims are assessing farmland to determine which farmland can be abandoned.


In higher coastal bend areas, there is not enough water to germinate seeds, and growers can start applying for insurance claims last week.

In the western part of the state, the final sowing date must be eligible for insurance payment.

Each county has its own final planting date, and the final planting date of the largest non irrigated cotton producing county in June 5th is in the state.

The sowing date of some counties may be postponed to June 20th, but the area is not large.

In short, the final output of the state in 2011/12 may be easily reduced by 40-50% compared with last year.

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India - the daily arrival quantity is about 30000 bales.

The total quantity of goods arrived this year is 29 million 400 thousand bales (170 kilograms), compared to last year, the number of goods arrived was 28 million 400 thousand packs.

As a result of the near future

Rumour

The number of exports will increase, so India's cotton prices will rise steadily.

It is not clear whether exports will be allowed to increase.

If permitted, it is also necessary to observe what conditions can be exported.

The industry is skeptical about export conditions. They remember that last year, about 928 companies registered for export business, most of which were not related to cotton.

Cotton merchant

Only 5 million packages are exported.

There is no ministerial meeting to decide when to discuss the issue.

At the same time, there are not many paction reports.

Gradually, market concerns will turn to important monsoon rainfall developments.


Pakistan - Cotton Planting belt has been generally relatively high in recent weeks, and there have been several raining cotton growth.

The estimated output of domestic institutions is about 13 million 500 thousand bales of -1400 million packages (170 kilograms), and the consumption is about 14 million 750 thousand packs. The number of imports is about 2 million packs to 2 million 500 thousand bales.

Compared with the US Department of agriculture figures, Pakistan's domestic institutional forecasts are more optimistic.

Cotton, textiles and related markets began to show signs of stability, and the market saw some purchases.

Because of the demand for yarn, the market is beginning to revive.

In recent weeks, several yarn factories have completely closed or cut production.


The market trend of China Zhengzhou commodity exchange is still neutral.

The most active 11 years September contract settlement is only slightly higher than last week (375 points).

However, 12 years in January, the contract was pushed up by speculative speculation, which seemed more optimistic.

In the 11 year September, the contract was reduced by 80000 hands, while the 12 year January contract increased 53000 hands during this period.


  


 

 


In addition to some odd enquiries, textile mills continue to show no interest in signing new cotton.

Cotton growth is normal in most parts of the world, but the worst drought in the Yangtze River Basin in 50 years is a bit worrying.


 
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