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Zhai Naigang: The Trend Of Cotton Price Volatility Before And After New Year'S Day Is Still The Main Keynote.

2010/12/28 15:01:00 41

Due to the impact of the New Year holidays, there are great changes in the international and domestic markets before and after new year's day. In the short term, the supply has increased, but the downstream demand is not booming, and the recent rain and snow climate has hindered pportation. The trend of the interval oscillation is still the main keynote.

Fundamentals of the international market, Pakistan

Textile mill

India is required to fulfil its contracted 1 million bales of cotton and Pakistan is facing a crisis of cotton supply.

Due to floods, Pakistan lost about 2 million 500 thousand bales of cotton this year. Its domestic consumption is about 15 million packs, with a shortfall of about 4 million bales.

Brazil's cotton exports increased sharply in November for sixth consecutive months, reaching 64 thousand tons, an increase of 35.6% over the same period.

Analysts say the India Market

Exit

Policy is gradually clear.

At present, the focus of market attention will gradually shift to the prediction of cotton planting area in 2011.

But the recent rain and snow climate has impeded pportation, and cotton prices will remain high and volatile.

The domestic market fundamentals, the current spot market lint trading is still not active, downstream business wait-and-see mentality is still strong.

At the end of the year, the cotton throughput of Xinjiang will reach 1 million tons, which is far higher than that of previous years, which will effectively alleviate the tight supply of cotton in December.

In addition, imported cotton will also arrive at port in January, and the supply will increase. It is expected that the probability of a sharp increase in the short term will be convergent.

But in the recent United States and other major cotton producing countries encountered Blizzard weather, whether outside cotton can suggest that the port still needs further attention to the weather factors.

Therefore, analysts believe that the spot market is still very uncertain, interval shocks are still the main keynote.

From the perspective of supply and demand, China

Cotton Association

In the latest cotton monthly report released in December 27th, it is estimated that the total output of cotton will be 6 million 650 thousand tons this year, an increase of 20 thousand tons from the previous month, compared with the previous year, a decrease of 2.1% over the previous year.

The association also monitored and estimated that as of the end of November, the total turnover of commodity cotton turnover in China was about 988 thousand tons, an increase of 442 thousand tons compared with October.

From the data, short-term supply has increased, so that short-term cotton prices will be under pressure.

From the downstream demand side, after entering the January, textile enterprises will gradually enter the off-season. From the current cotton market situation, some manufacturers of cotton yarn are unsalable, for raw materials replenishment, are more cautious, so that the market has seen a low turnover phenomenon, some small and medium-sized enterprises have also stopped in advance.

Analysts believe that in the face of the low demand for downstream businesses, although short-term cotton prices are under pressure, the recent rain and snow weather still brings some unfavorable factors to the pportation supply, so the probability of maintaining high and high prices will be greater in the near future.

According to China Weather Network, the next three days, northern and Western Xinjiang, Western Tibet, Inner Mongolia, northeast, northern Hebei, Shandong Peninsula and other places have small to moderate snow or snow, of which parts of northern and Eastern Heilongjiang, northeast Jilin and other places have heavy snow; northern Xinjiang and along the Tianshan area, the snow volume is 1~5 millimeters, the northwest of the northwest of the snow will reach 30~70 centimeters; the northern and eastern parts of Heilongjiang have 3~12 millimeters of snow, and the depth of northern snow will reach 30~70 centimeters.

In the next three days, there will be light rain or showers in parts of the southwest part of the country.

Influenced by snowfall and heavy fog, many high speed roads in China are blocked at present, which brings adverse effects to cotton pportation again.

To sum up, analyst Zhai Naigang believes that under the influence of the New Year holidays, there is no big change in the international and domestic markets before and after new year's day. In the short term, the supply has increased, but the downstream demand is not booming, and the recent rain and snow climate has hindered pportation. The trend of the interval oscillation is still the main keynote.