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Ireland Rescued Hard To Change Market Pessimism &Nbsp; &Nbsp; Euro Lowest In Two Months

2010/11/30 8:48:00 58

Ireland'S Pessimism: Euro Down

On the first trading day after the Irish rescue plan was announced, the euro fluctuated sharply against the US dollar and the pessimistic comments on the euro outlook still flooded the market.


Doubts remain, and the euro falls again.


Yes

Ireland

Of

rescue

At last, there is a conclusion, but everything is not settled. The euro market performance is more volatile.

On Monday, the euro jumped to the dollar, but the exchange rate quickly dropped and fell to around 1.3200. Then the euro rose to about 1.3300, but after entering the European session, the euro fell to 1.3200 below the dollar and refreshed the lowest in two months. The US dollar index rose to the highest level in two months.


Yesterday's less than expected euro zone economic sentiment index was considered to exacerbate the euro's decline, but

Euro down

The main driving force still lies in the debt uncertainty of euro zone countries.

It seems that although the European Union has passed the aid plan to Ireland in order to prevent the debt crisis from spreading to more countries, the market does not fully believe its effect to the outcome of EU efforts.


The prospect of Euro

Pessimism

Of

Argument

Still the main theme of the market.

Analysts pointed out that this is because investors are still worried about other countries in the euro zone, such as Portugal and Spain, the risk of fiscal default.

Goldman Sachs has even warned that the eurozone must carry out a series of fiscal and political actions, otherwise the euro will face the risk of disintegration in the next 5 years.


Endless holes


After Ireland's fiscal exposure, the euro is weak in the past few weeks as the market worries that the European debt crisis is ultimately "bottomless" and the EU may be overburdened.

The US dollar index rose 2.43% last week for the three consecutive week, and the euro last week led a 3.15% decline in the non US currency.

In addition to the euro, there is a distinct decrease in the commodity currencies of the Australian dollar, due to the prevalence of risk aversion and the impact of China's tightening expectations.


The reason why the market looks down on the euro is not only whether Greece, Ireland can repay debts on a timely basis after receiving aid and a series of harsh terms, but also how long the EU can be "gold owners" if more countries expose their debt problems.

Investors have shifted their targets from Ireland to Portugal and Spain, and yesterday's index Markit data show that despite the Irish help, the price of 5 - year credit default swap (CDS) in Portugal and the West continues to rise.


Overseas media reported last Friday that most euro zone countries and the European Central Bank are urging Portugal to apply for financial assistance to the European rescue fund.

But more dangerous is Spain, because the country's total economic volume is almost two times the total of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, which means that once Spain seeks assistance, it may exhaust the euro zone's 750 billion euro financial aid.


Last week, the German central bank governor Webb said he might expand the size of the bailout mechanism set up by the European Union and IMF, but German finance minister Schauble said yesterday that he had not expanded the scale of the rescue mechanism. He believed that the market's speculation about Portugal was groundless.

The finance ministers of Germany and France have confidence in Portugal's financial "downsizing plan".

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