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Global Market Confidence In China'S Economy Is Growing.

2016/4/25 15:36:00 35

Global MarketChina'S EconomyConfidence

Recently, the first quarter of 2016, China's economic data came out one after another.

Almost at the same time, the International Monetary Fund IMF, the world bank, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and other international institutions also announced the latest forecast of the global economic situation.

Although international agencies remain conservative or pessimistic about the outlook for the whole year's economy, they generally raise their expectations for China's economic growth.

This makes China the most interesting spot in this round of reports.

IMF released the April global economic outlook report in Washington. The global economic growth is expected to be 3.2% this year, down 0.2 percentage points from its forecast for January this year.

But in the analysis of the economic situation of various regions and countries, China's economic growth rate is expected to be raised to 6.5% this year, up 0.2 percentage points from the January forecast.

China is the only major economy that has been upregulated by economic growth in the report entitled "warning that global economic growth has slowed down for a long time".

Since April, Morgan chase, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and other financial institutions have also raised their expectations for China's economic growth.

In April 9th, Tao Dong, the managing director of Credit Suisse, told the media: "for China's economy, Credit Suisse has raised the growth rate of the second quarter of the Chinese economy and the growth rate this year, because China's policy is stable, and the exchange rate and the real estate market will also be more stable.

China's economy is now stabilizing. It is expected that the driving force for economic growth will be improved. The second quarter GDP will be revised to 7% from the 6.7% quarter annualized rate, while the three or four quarter forecast will be adjusted to 6.6% and 6.3% respectively.

Its annual GDP growth in China is forecast to be 6.6%.

These market reactions have contrasting sharply with the relative low and pessimistic estimates of China's economy before the two sessions this year.

The previous day, the world bank also made a 6.7% forecast of China's economic growth this year, and said: in 2016, China remained the main driving force for Asian development.

Li Keqiang, premier of the State Council, held two meetings.

Economic Forum

At the meeting, the first quarter data provided by the local government leaders showed that a series of policies and measures adopted in the early stage were gradually emerging.

Li Keqiang pointed out that in 2016, China's economy started smoothly, the main economic indicators were better than expected, and global market confidence in China's economy was also growing.

Since the beginning of the year, the Chinese government has adopted a series of effective measures including steady growth and structural adjustment, including capacity reduction and tax reduction.

In its outlook report, IMF explained why China's economic growth is expected to rise: This is a reaction to China's announced economic adjustment policy.

The report points out: "China's economy is changing from investment drive to consumption drive.

As China moves to capacity and inventory, industrial growth will further decline, while the service sector is expected to maintain steady growth.

MauriceObstfeld, chief economist of IMF, chief executive of the report, said in an interview: "the short-term expectation for China is due to our opposition.

Chinese government

Be confident.

We believe that the Chinese government will have a corresponding policy to ensure that the growth rate reached 6.5%, the growth rate between 6.5%-7% is also the goal set by the Chinese government for itself.

After the "two sessions", Li Keqiang met with Chinese and foreign journalists as usual and answered questions.

More than half of the 17 problems of the day are related to China's economic development and policies, and the 6 problems from overseas media are all in China's economic situation.

A reporter asked Li Keqiang: in the past year, the world financial situation was very unstable, and the downward pressure on China's economy was bigger. Some people even worried.

China's economy

The growth rate will fall below 6.5%.

In response, Li Keqiang responded: "if you want me to agree with you that China's economy can not complete the main goals already established, I am afraid I can not agree."

The confident response of the Chinese Premier has become the title of many foreign media, including the United States, and is considered to be a manifestation of the confidence of the Chinese government on that day.

A month later, the National Bureau of statistics issued the operation data of the first quarter of the Chinese economy one after another, which strongly corroborated the prime minister's confidence during the "two sessions".

Data show that China's economic growth in the first quarter was 6.7%, which is in line with the annual target of 6.5% to 7%.

Among them, the third industry increased by 7.6%, the highest in three industries.

In March, the export price of industrial producer was the first to rise from January 2014.

The export data not only ended the negative growth of 8 months, but also achieved a 18.7% high growth rate in March.

Li Keqiang reminded the head of the local government at a symposium held in Zhongnanhai: "China's economy is in the process of pformation of new and old energy, the trend of economic differentiation and multiple features are unavoidable.

At the same time, we should also see positive changes, lock in objectives, strengthen confidence, maintain stability, face challenges directly, withstand pressure, lay a solid foundation, expand positive factors and keep the economy running in a reasonable range.

Far from the IMF report conference in Washington, USA, GianMariaMilesi-Ferretti, a leading contributor to Asia and chief economist of IMF Asia, was interviewed by the media. When asked about the overall situation of the Chinese economy, the frequent visiting Chinese economist said: "it is time to test the Chinese government's ability to govern.

But I believe they will find a solution. "


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