U.S. Cotton Export Data Support Cotton Prices

According to statistics, as of January 29th, the United States has signed a net total of 2 million 176 thousand tons of cotton for 2014/2015, accumulative total of 807 thousand tons of cotton and 37.10% shipping. Among them, China has signed a total of 533 thousand tons of US cotton imports in 2014/2015, accounting for 24.48% of the US cotton export volume, and accumulatively shipped 186 thousand tons of cotton, accounting for 23% of the total volume of cotton and cotton, accounting for 34.86% of China's contracted volume.

This year, because of the limitation of China's cotton import quota, the export volume of US cotton has been reduced, which is 116 thousand tons lower than the 2 million 293 thousand tons in the previous year. But from the current US cotton export contract speed, this year's sales progress is obviously higher than the average level of nearly five years, just below 2010.

Data show that the first half of this year, the United States completed 102% of the total annual exports of the United States, and the sales pressure is very small in the latter half of the year, which will also support the US cotton.

At the same time, with the return of cotton price difference between inside and outside, and under the strong external cotton, it is expected that domestic cotton prices will also rise in the direction of narrowing the space between cotton and domestic cotton.

To sum up, the author believes that in the context of the development of the overall supply and demand pattern in the current year, cotton prices have begun to take shape in the medium and long term. In the short term, it is expected that the cotton will continue to rise in the short term, driven by the export of cotton, the rising price of Xinjiang cotton and the demand of textile enterprises in the spring and autumn before and after the Spring Festival.

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Zheng cotton main 1505 contract around 13000 yuan / ton fluctuating market has lasted for more than two months, recently has a breakthrough of 13250 yuan / ton pressure trend. In this regard, the author believes that China's textile industry continues to run at a low speed, and the recovery process is relatively slow, laying a weak cotton price. However, before and after the Spring Festival, supported by the demand for replenishment of some textile enterprises and the support of the Xinjiang regiment cotton sales, it is expected that Zheng cotton will rise in a weak position.

Cotton consumption is running at low speed. According to the latest statistics, in December 2014, the added value of textile industry increased by 7.4% over the same period last year, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in November. Looking back at the trend of the textile industry's added value in 2014, it has maintained a low level since the beginning of the year. However, there has been a rebound trend in terms of industrial value in recent months. According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in December 2014, the export volume of textiles and clothing was 25 billion 674 million US dollars, an increase of 5.46% over the same period, down 1.24% from the same period last year. In 2014 1-12, the export volume of China's textiles and clothing (above two categories) totaled 298 billion 426 million US dollars, an increase of 14 billion 436 million US dollars compared with the same period last year, an increase of 5.08% over the same period last year. It can be seen that downstream cotton in China. Textile consumption The situation is still at a low speed, and the key to cotton price inflation is difficult to be constrained by consumption.

　　 Xinjiang cotton The quotation is firm and cotton enterprises are optimistic about the future market. according to Xinjiang According to the statistics of the Corps, the cotton planting area of the Corps was 11 million 150 thousand mu in 2014, and the total output is expected to be 1 million 760 thousand tons. As of February 10th, 1 million 680 thousand tons of cotton were processed in this year, accounting for 95% of the total output, but the contracted sales accounted for only about 30% of the estimated total output. Judging from the current situation, corps sales are very optimistic. An important reason is that since the launch of the new cotton market in October last year, the regiment has not lowered its price in the light of spot slump and the continuous downward price of cotton at home and abroad. At present, the cotton picking is still 14500 yuan / ton. Although the regiment is selling at a relatively high pressure, at present, the Corps still has a very high price. Since Xinjiang's cotton output accounts for about 70% of the total output this year and the Corps accounts for nearly 40% of the total output of the whole country, the price of the regiment has a great impact on the spot market and has played an important role in stabilizing the domestic stock market. And in the price of Xinjiang cotton, zhengmian futures price is also expected to rise.

Most cotton enterprises are optimistic about the cotton market after the Spring Festival. The first is the theory of cost support. At present, most cotton enterprises do not have large profit margins for the sale of lint. The cotton sales of Xinjiang Corps support the cotton market to a certain extent; the two is the cotton production reduction theory. Most cotton enterprises generally believe that although the total quantity of Xinjiang cotton purchase has not been substantially reduced this year, the quality of Xinjiang cotton is definitely reduced. With the consumption of the products, the Xinjiang cotton market with good quality after the festival is expected to increase, and the three is the quota restriction theory. The state has made it clear that the quota will not be increased, and if the textile enterprises want to obtain general trade quotas, they can only make the ratio of the number of enterprises buying the Xinjiang cotton and reduce the number of imported cotton, and the Xinjiang cotton market will get support.