Summary Of Cotton Market Quotation: Boiled Frog In Warm Water

Global cotton supply is loose.

According to the US Department of agriculture's global cotton production and storage forecast data in October, the 2014/15 inventory increased by 179 thousand tons to 23 million 321 thousand tons at the end of the year, and the global cotton supply was relatively loose.

China is expected to produce 6 million 641 thousand tons in 2014, import volume of 1 million 524 thousand tons, initial inventory of 13 million 654 thousand tons, and consumption of 8 million 274 thousand tons, ending inventory reached 664.1+152.4+1365.4-827.4=1353.4 million tons, cotton supply is extremely relaxed.

Domestic cotton purchases and sales are slow.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system survey data, as of November 14th, the national cotton sales rate was 18.3%, down 28.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year, slowing down 18.3 percentage points over the normal years of the past four years, of which the sales rate in Xinjiang was 17.7%, down 32.1 percentage points from the same period last year.

At present, the main platform of Xinjiang's main lint price is quoted at 14400-14600 yuan / ton, down 300-400 yuan / ton compared with the previous stage, although there is a turnover of 15000 yuan / ton of high-quality lint, but the bargaining space is larger and the sales speed is slowing down. The spot price of lint in the the Yellow River River Basin and the Yangtze River Valley is temporarily stabilized at 13500-14500 yuan / ton.

The futures market is on the downside.

In November 17th, the closing price of Zheng cotton contract CF1501 was 13020 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, or 1.51%.

The closing price of the main contract CF1505 was 12750 yuan / ton, down 255 yuan / ton, or 1.96%.

Since November, Zheng cotton CF1501 contract has fallen by 600 yuan / ton, and will continue to challenge 13000 yuan / ton pressure level in the near future.

Last week, the ICE cotton oscillation dropped to 59.63 cents / pound on the 14 day, down 2.98 cents in the week.

The author thinks that from the above aspects, we can see that

There is no possibility of a rebound, but cotton prices will not fall sharply, supported by cost.

At present, the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton (hand picked cotton) is 6.10-6.30 yuan / kg (lint 40%, moisture regain 12%), cottonseed 1.80 yuan / kg, converted, 3128 grade lint cost at 14000-14300 yuan / ton, compared with 14500-14600 yuan / ton sales price (platform price), cotton enterprises basically have no profit; inland cotton seed

In the 3.30-3.40 yuan / Jin line, the price of cottonseed is 1.08-1.10 yuan / kg, and the cost of the 3128 grade lint is 14100-14500 yuan / ton. At present, the selling price has been hung upside down with the cost.

The author believes that the current cotton market is cotton farmers.

The game between cotton enterprises and textile enterprises, we all want to earn more or pay less.

Cotton prices overall decline trend is difficult to change, but under the cost of support, cotton prices will not appear "cliff" type of decline, with "warm water boiled frog" to describe the most appropriate, domestic cotton prices will be stabilized in the range of 12000-13000 yuan / ton.